The interest rate on these schemes have remained unchanged for over a year now.
Checks on the large capital flows could be on the anvil as the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday said its inflation target for 2007-08 hinges on a "more active" capital account management.
RBI's policy stance must address concerns over slowing output
To stamp on inflation, RBI raised its key short-term lending and borrowing rates by 0.25 per cent and 0.50 per cent respectively.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Average price of the Indian basket for international crude rose by 42.4 per cent during 2005-06 as compared to the previous year, leading to a sharp increase in merchandise import payment during the year, says RBI.
It could add to pressure on inflation, especially food inflation, which was already high, it said.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
In the mid-year monetary policy review on Tuesday, RBI, left the key interest rate unchanged but reduced cash reserve ratio by 0.25 per cent to infuse additional liquidity of up to Rs 17,500 crore (Rs 175 billion) into the system.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has barred four non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), including two microfinance institutions (MFIs), from sanctioning and disbursing loans for charging exorbitant interest rates to the borrowers. These four entities are Asirvad Microfinance, Arohan Financial Services (also an MFI), DMI Finance, which provides personal, consumption, and micro, small and medium enterprises loans, and Flipkart co-founder Sachin Bansal's Navi Finserv, which offers home and personal loans. The ban will take effect on October 21 to "facilitate closure of transactions in the pipeline", the regulator said in a statement.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
High deposit rates may put pressure on teaser home loan rates
Though interest rates have peaked, a hike in cash reserve ratio by the Reserve Bank of India cannot be ruled out in the first quarterly review of monetary policy later this month, a top official of a foreign bank said on Monday.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023.
The paper seems to be suggesting strongly that the tight target range be maintained even as the central bank is all set to miss the target range for three consecutive quarters because of the Covid crisis.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Speaking at the Business Standard Banking Round Table in Mumbai on Monday, five of the six bank chiefs said 'no' when asked whether RBI should raise rates in the second quarter review of the monetary policy on October 25.
Rajan, who will complete a month as the governor of Reserve Bank of India on Friday has already succeeded in restoring calm in the foreign exchange market.
India Inc on Thursday expressed fear that the RBI's decision to raise key short-term rates will push up the cost of borrowing, making some of their projects unviable and hurting expansion plans.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
The Reserve Bank of India on Monday gave strong hints of another hike in its key interest rates at the policy review on Tuesday, saying that high inflation requires further monetary tightening, slowdown in growth notwithstanding.
RBI Governor D Subbarao explains the rationale for the moves announced in the second quarter review of the monetary policy in an interview with Sidhartha. Excerpts:
The Reserve Bank of India on Monday said inflationary pressures because of oil and food prices are likely to continue, giving an indication that monetary policy could be tightened further when it comes for review on Tuesday.
'Overall, domestic demand has moderated significantly. 'The weakening of private consumption, which for long has been the bedrock of aggregate demand, in particular, is a matter of concern,' RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in the MPC meetings, in October.
On July 15, the Reserve Bank put in place measures to restore stability in the foreign exchange market, including raising the Marginal Standing Facility and bank rates to 10.25 per cent and restricting access by way of repos to Rs 75,000 crore (Rs 750 billion).
The CPI and WPI data for December 2013 holds the key for the third-quarter monetary policy review to be announced later this month.
The policy review observed that the moderation in inflation, excluding food and fuel, that was witnessed in the first quarter of 2017-18 has "by and large, reversed".
The RBI left key policy rates unchanged and cut the GDP growth estimate for this fiscal to 5.5 per cent from 5.7 per cent.
In terms of magnitude of rate cuts, Morgan Stanley expects 50-100 basis points of policy rate cuts in 2015, depending on the inflation trajectory, which in turn will be dependent on the trend in commodity prices, fiscal deficit and rural wage growth.
The HSBC India Composite Output Index, which maps both services and manufacturing activity, fell to 48.4 in July, down from 50.9 in June, indicating an overall contraction.
The Urjit Patel committee on monetary policy framework has proposed setting up of a monetary policy committee (MPC) that will be headed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor and accountable for achieving inflation target set by it.
Technical Advisory Committee was for status quo in policy rate on little hope of government action.
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